Dow Jones Futures: Market Holds Strong Amid Rising Oil and Tesla Drop; Jobs Report Ahead

Market Outlook and Key Developments

Dow Jones futures remained relatively stable after hours, alongside S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures. The stock market will be closed on Good Friday, but the March jobs report is set to be released. Investors are closely monitoring the latest developments regarding the Iran conflict and statements from former President Donald Trump.

Despite the holiday, the stock market rebounded significantly from six-month lows during a shortened trading week. This was driven by uncertainty surrounding crude oil prices and the ongoing situation in Iran. Although major indices remain below key levels, there has been a notable attempt at a market rally.

Several stocks across different industries are showing strong performance. Teradyne (TER), Comfort Systems (FIX), Equinix (EQIX), Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals (KNSA), and Burlington Stores (BURL) are all near their buy points with strong relative strength lines. However, Tesla (TSLA) experienced a drop on Thursday due to weaker-than-expected deliveries.

Stock Market Performance and Trends

Comfort Systems is currently on the Leaderboard, while Teradyne is on the watchlist. Kiniksa and Comfort Systems are also featured on the IBD 50. Comfort Systems is included in the IBD Big Cap 20 and IBD Sector Leaders, and Burlington Stores was named IBD Stock Of The Day on Thursday.

Dow Jones futures were steady compared to fair value, while S&P 500 futures edged lower and Nasdaq 100 futures dipped by 0.1%. U.S. stock markets will be closed for Good Friday, along with most European markets, Hong Kong, and other regions. Dow Jones futures will trade normally overnight before closing at 10:15 a.m. ET on Friday. The U.S. bond market will remain open until noon ET, allowing traders to react to the 8:30 a.m. ET jobs report.

Economists predict that the March jobs report will show an increase of 53,000 nonfarm payrolls, with unemployment remaining at 4.4%. It’s important to note that overnight movements in futures do not always translate into actual trading activity in the next regular session.

Stock Market Rally and Economic Indicators

The stock market saw a sharp decline to six-month lows on Monday, followed by a strong recovery over the next two sessions as President Trump indicated the possibility of ending the Iran war. Stocks closed narrowly mixed on Thursday, rebounding from lows despite a surge in crude oil prices. Major indexes managed to snap a five-week losing streak.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose nearly 3% during the past week, while the S&P 500 index jumped 3.4%, and the Nasdaq composite soared 4.4%. The small-cap Russell 2000 gained 3.3%, surpassing its 200-day and 21-day lines. The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) rebounded 2.5% for the week, reclaiming its 200-day line.

Thursday marked the third day of a stock market rally attempt. A follow-through day could occur as early as Monday to confirm the rally. The rally will continue as long as major indexes hold their March 30 intraday lows. The 10-year Treasury yield declined by 13 basis points to 4.31%.

Oil Prices and Investor Sentiment

U.S. crude oil prices surged 11.9% for the week, reaching $111.54 per barrel, with most of the increase occurring on Thursday. Investors are keenly watching for any signs of an off-ramp from the Iran conflict and what happens with the Strait of Hormuz. Thursday’s news that Iran is in talks with Oman to monitor traffic through Hormuz provided some relief to equity investors, although oil traders were less optimistic.

ETF Performance and Key Stocks

Among growth ETFs, the Innovator IBD 50 ETF (FFT) rebounded with a 2.7% weekly gain. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) jumped 4.4%, and the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) bounced 4.8%, with Teradyne stock included in SMH. The ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) leapt 6.1%, and the ARK Genomics ETF (ARKG) soared 9.4%. Tesla stock is the top position across ARK Invest’s ETFs.

The SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) rose 4.55%, while the Energy Select SPDR ETF (XLE) tumbled 5.3%. The Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) gained 2.5%, and the Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI) advanced 2.9%, with Comfort Systems as a member. The Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) stepped up 3.6%.

Best Growth Stocks to Watch

Teradyne stock rallied 4.7% to $309.61 for the week, above its 50-day line after previously falling below the key level on Monday. TER stock now has a consolidation with a 344.92 buy point. Investors could consider using the March 24 high of 327.42 as an early entry point for the chip-gear stock, with a downward-sloping trendline slightly below that.

Comfort Systems stock also fell below its buy point on Monday but rebounded for a 3.7% weekly gain to $1,417.19. FIX stock, an AI cooling play, now has a new base with a 1,500 buy point, according to MarketSurge.

Equinix stock popped 3.9% to $1,000.37, clearing a 992.90 buy point from a flat base that could be viewed as a handle to a long consolidation. The data center REIT boasts a dividend yield of just over 2%.

Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals stock jumped 6.7% this past week to $48.82, rebounding off the 50-day line. The biotech now has a flat base with a 49.12 buy point. But KNSA stock has already cleared a four-weeks-tight entry of 47.83.

Burlington Stores jumped 5.1% to $328.73 for the week. The off-price retailer tested a 332.20 flat-base buy point, but hasn’t closed above it.

Tesla Stock Performance

Tesla stock plunged 5.4% to $360.59 on Thursday, down 0.3% for the week. The RS line for TSLA is at its lowest levels in nearly seven months.

Tesla delivered 358,023 electric vehicles in the first quarter, up 6.2% year-over-year but below estimates of roughly 365,000-381,000, even with high gas prices providing a tailwind. Energy storage deployed came in far below consensus.

What to Do Now

The stock market is attempting a comeback, holding up fairly well on Thursday despite spiking oil prices. A follow-through day could come any day now to confirm the rally attempt. Investors should view a follow-through day with some skepticism. A Trump post or other Iran war news could easily trigger a follow-through day, only for stocks to plunge on fresh headlines. Still, the dozens of quality stocks setting up in this difficult environment can’t be ignored.

Work on watchlists so you’re prepared. If there’s a follow-through day, investors should look to participate in some way, via a stock or ETF purchase or two. If the market rally continues to act well, slowly build up your exposure. But if the market tumbles, before or after a follow-through day, be quick to scale back.

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