Gary Black Warns of SpaceX-Tesla Merger with Netflix-Warner Bros Analogy: ‘Who Will Buy the $50B?’
Investor Warns Against Potential SpaceX-Tesla Merger
Gary Black, an investor with The Future Fund LLC, has raised concerns about a potential merger between SpaceX and Tesla Inc. (TSLA). He drew parallels to the failed acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. (WBD) by Netflix Inc. (NFLX), warning that such a move could have negative consequences for investors.
Black emphasized that shareholders are typically resistant to companies using equity to acquire other firms. He highlighted the example of Netflix’s attempt to acquire Warner Bros., which led to a significant drop in its stock price. “Shareholders HATE when companies use equity to buy other companies,” he stated. The stock only recovered after Netflix management abandoned the deal.
Shareholder Concerns and Stock Dilution
Black expressed concerns about the dilution of shares if SpaceX were to go public and then use that equity to acquire Tesla. He pointed out that institutional investors would be hesitant to invest in a SpaceX IPO if they expected it to later dilute their holdings through a major acquisition.
“Who will purchase the $50B of rumored SpaceX IPO shares if post-IPO SpaceX makes a giant dilutive acquisition of TSLA?” he asked. He also noted that the financial logic behind such a deal would not make sense.
Likely Scenario for SpaceX IPO
In a follow-up post, Black outlined what he believes is a likely scenario for SpaceX’s IPO. He suggested that the company could launch with a $50 billion valuation and a market cap of $1.5 trillion. He also mentioned that Tesla investors interested in buying SpaceX would likely sell some of their TSLA shares to fund their investment.
He added that SpaceX’s management would likely include in their S-1 filings that there are no current plans for the company to acquire Tesla after the IPO. This would help avoid potential legal issues from investors.
Previous Criticism and Impact on Stock Value
Black had previously warned that a SpaceX-Tesla merger could result in a 20-25% reduction in Tesla’s stock value, which would negatively affect its investors. He argued that while such a deal might lead to short-term gains, long-term investors who believe in Tesla’s electric vehicle vision would likely sell their stakes.
SpaceX IPO Reports and Market Trends
Meanwhile, reports suggest that SpaceX may file for its IPO as early as this week. The company is reportedly aiming to raise over $75 billion through the offering, according to sources familiar with the matter. This comes after Elon Musk confirmed a valuation of $1.75 trillion in a recent social media post.
According to Jendela MagazineEdge Rankings, Tesla performs well on the Momentum metric and offers a favorable price trend in the long term.
Price Action and Market Performance
On Tuesday, Tesla’s stock gained 0.57% to close at $383.03. During overnight trading, it surged further by 0.97% to $386.71.
For more insights into the future of mobility, readers can explore additional coverage from Jendela Magazine.
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© 2026 Jendela Magazine. Jendela Magazine does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
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