Mass Deportations Threaten Bay Area Economy and Jobs: Report

Economic Impacts of Mass Deportations in the Bay Area

A new economic report has raised concerns about the potential consequences of mass deportations on the Bay Area economy. The findings suggest that such actions could significantly disrupt the region’s already fragile job market, reduce tax revenues, and negatively affect retail and restaurant spending.

The Bay Area Council Economic Institute released a report on Wednesday, highlighting the possible loss of up to 5.8% of the nine-county region’s gross domestic product (GDP), which was valued at $1.15 trillion as of 2023. According to the report, the Bay Area could lose up to $67 billion in real GDP due to direct labor losses and ripple effects across supplier networks and reduced household spending.

Abby Raisz, a vice president of research with the Economic Institute, emphasized the potential long-term impacts on the Bay Area job market. “Layoffs, stagnant wages, and reduced opportunities would follow the removal of these workers,” the report stated.

This warning comes at a time when the Bay Area has already experienced significant job losses. In 2025, the region lost 20,000 jobs, and over the past three years, there has been a net loss of 137,200 tech jobs, including 27,300 in 2025 alone, according to estimates from Beacon Economics.

Mass deportations could also threaten $8.4 billion in annual tax revenue through diminished federal, state, and property taxes, the Economic Institute estimated. The Bay Area is home to more than 2.6 million immigrants, including 477,000 undocumented residents, according to the report. These individuals are employed in key industries such as administrative support, waste management, construction, hotels, and restaurants.

“The Bay Area has a lot to lose,” Raisz said. “There could be a big impact on the labor supply in the Bay Area.”

Multiple reports in recent years have highlighted the economic risks associated with mass deportations. A March 2025 report by Rice University’s Baker Institute for Economic Policy suggested that such actions could reduce the U.S. GDP by 2.6% to 6.2% over the next decade. However, the national economy expanded by 3.8% in the second quarter, 4.4% in the third quarter, and 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2025, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. The economy did shrink by 0.7% in the first quarter of 2025, but mass deportations were not yet underway during that period.

President Donald Trump’s administration has claimed that mass deportations can boost the economy in multiple ways, according to a January 2026 post by the White House. Despite this, the Economic Institute report notes that undocumented workers currently fill roles in various sectors that some experts believe are difficult to replace.

“Undocumented workers represent 19% of the administrative support and waste management sector, which includes janitors, housekeepers, security, and maintenance workers, 15% of accommodation and food services, and 13% of construction workers,” the report stated.

These workers earn an estimated $21.5 billion annually in the Bay Area, averaging about $61,200 per worker. The Economic Institute estimates that these earnings generate $3.6 billion in federal income taxes, $1 billion in state income taxes, and $446 million in local property taxes. After paying these taxes, undocumented households in the Bay Area retain about $16.5 billion in purchasing power.

The report underscores the critical role that undocumented workers play in the Bay Area economy and the potential devastation that could result from their removal. As the region continues to navigate economic challenges, the implications of mass deportations remain a pressing concern for policymakers and business leaders alike.