Dow Plummets, Oil Near $100 as Iran Conflict Looms; Tesla in Focus

Market Overview and Futures Activity

Dow Jones futures will open on Sunday evening, alongside S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures. This comes as President Donald Trump’s comments and ongoing developments regarding the Iran war continue to dominate market attention. The stock market has experienced a downward trend for five consecutive weeks, with major indexes hitting six-month lows. Oil prices initially dropped but later surged to around $100 per barrel, while Treasury yields increased significantly.

Key Stock Movements

Tesla’s deliveries are ahead of expectations, but the stock has faced challenges, falling to a six-month low. Meanwhile, chip stocks such as Sandisk (SNDK), Micron Technology (MU), and others have seen significant losses due to concerns over long-term demand. However, some of these stocks showed slight recovery on Friday.

On the other hand, Dow Jones components like Caterpillar (CAT) and discount retailer TJX Cos. (TJX) have shown strength, along with coal miner Peabody Energy (BTU). These companies are benefiting from strong demand in their respective sectors.

Market Performance and Trends

The stock market started the week with mixed performance, as oil prices plunged following President Trump’s remarks about peace talks in Iran. However, Tehran dismissed his proposal, and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, leading to continued market volatility. Despite Trump extending the deadline for negotiations, shares declined, and oil prices hit new highs.

Major indices saw significant drops: the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.9%, the S&P 500 slipped 2.1%, and the Nasdaq composite plummeted 3.2%. The Russell 2000 rose slightly but remained below midweek highs. Chip stocks were among the biggest losers, while energy-related ETFs like XLE and XLV saw gains.

ETF Performance

Among growth ETFs, the Innovator IBD 50 ETF (FFTYY) fell 1.2%, while the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) dropped 7.35%. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) declined 2.7%, with Micron being a major holding. The ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) fell 6.5%, and the ARK Genomics ETF (ARKG) dropped 4%. Tesla is the top holding across ARK Invest’s ETFs.

Other ETFs like the SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) gained 4.1%, and the Energy Select SPDR ETF (XLE) jumped 5.5%. In contrast, the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) lost 1.4%, and the Financial Select SPDR ETF (XLF) gave up 2.6%.

Stocks To Watch

Caterpillar (CAT) rose 2.1% last week, but it remains just below its 50-day line. A move above the March 23 high of 729.35 would be a positive signal. TJX (TJX) edged up 0.1%, but it faded back below the 50-day line after hitting resistance at 159.48. Peabody Energy (BTU) gained 5.9%, hitting a multiyear closing high on Friday.

Sandisk (SNDK) and Micron (MU) faced steep declines due to concerns over long-term demand for memory chips. Google’s new compression algorithm could reduce the need for memory in AI tasks, potentially impacting future demand for these stocks.

Tesla Deliveries and Outlook

Tesla is expected to release first-quarter global deliveries and energy storage figures before the market opens on April 2. The company’s internal estimate of 365,645 units is below analyst forecasts, which may affect investor sentiment. Tesla stock fell 1.7% to $361.83, reaching a six-month low.

Chinese EV makers such as BYD (BYDDF), Xiaomi (XIACY), Nio (NIO), Li Auto (LI), and XPeng (XPEV) will also report Q1 deliveries on April 1. These companies are expected to see a rebound in sales during the second quarter as they ramp up deliveries of new models.

Rivian (RIVN) is set to release Q1 deliveries soon, with much anticipation surrounding its upcoming R2 vehicle.

What To Do Now

The stock market continues to decline, and investors should remain cautious. While some stocks showed potential buy signals earlier in the week, most of them failed to maintain gains. It’s important to avoid jumping on bullish signals until the market shows consistent strength.

With the market closed on Good Friday, the Labor Department will release the March jobs report. Investors should stay informed and prepared for potential shifts in market direction.

For more insights, follow Ed Carson on Threads and X/Twitter for regular updates.

Additional Resources

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